A CONSERVATIVE politician has said at this morning’s count a Liberal Democrat victory in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election "shouldn’t be a surprise".
Conservative candidate Chris Davies won the seat with an 8,038 majority in 2017 but is now facing a by-election after losing his seat to a recall petition over a false expenses claim. The former Powys councillor and auctioneer had captured the seat from the Lib Dems at the 2015 general election to help secure David Cameron an unexpected majority.
Nick Ramsey, who represents the neighbouring constituency of Monmouthshire in the Welsh Assembly, said he is expecting a tight race tonight.
Party insiders at the count, at the Royal Welsh Showground, also think votes are falling evenly between both the Conservatives and Lib Dem candidate Jane Dodds.
He also said polls released this week that have shown increasing support for the Conservatives, since Boris Johnson became party leader and PM, could suggest the party will do well.
He said: "I would assume that a national bounce would factor in but you can’t take anything for granted.
"Any by-election local issues play a part. It all depends, I guess, on how much store people put in Chris and his local popularity and how much they hold what he’s done against him. It is like an equation and we will find out in a few hours.
"I think the Conservatives are more confident about the seat than they were but the Lib Dems have fought a very tough fight and it has been a Lib Dem, and Liberal, seat in the past so it shouldn’t be a surprise if they take it back tonight."