A new poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Aberystwyth University and Newyddion S4C, places Reform UK slightly ahead of Plaid Cymru in voting intention ahead of the Senedd election.

The results suggest a tightly contested race, with Reform UK on 30 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 28 per cent. Labour follows on 15 per cent, while both the Conservatives and the Green Party are on 10 per cent, Liberal Democrats on 4 per cent, and 4 per cent selecting another party.

Dr Anwen Elias from Aberystwyth University, who led the analysis of the opinion poll, said: “These findings point to a highly competitive political landscape ahead of the Senedd election, with two parties currently leading in voting intention. While Reform UK are found to hold a slight lead over Plaid Cymru, it is clearly incredibly close between the two parties. On the basis of such close polling results, projecting which party will win the most seats in the Senedd is incredibly difficult. The sixth seat in each constituency is likely to be decided by very small numbers of votes. It is very finely balanced.

“It is also striking that this poll demonstrates how support for the two parties that gained the most seats in the last Senedd elections, Labour and the Conservatives, has fallen so far behind the front-runners. If these results are replicated on May 7, they will constitute a historic change in our politics.”

Around two-thirds of voters identify the cost of living at 67 per cent and NHS and healthcare at 64 per cent as the most important factors influencing their vote. Immigration at 39 per cent and the economy more generally at 31 per cent also rank highly, while housing, climate change, crime and education are selected by smaller numbers of respondents.

The survey also finds that most people in Wales are interested in politics in general at 60 per cent, and that just over half have been following the election campaign at least to some extent.

Engagement varies significantly by age, with older people more likely to be interested in and engaged with politics than younger people. Among those aged 65 and over, more than two-thirds say they have paid a lot or some attention to the election campaign, compared with less than half of 16 to 24-year-olds.

20 per cent of respondents say Plaid Cymru is running the best election campaign, closely followed by Reform UK on 18 per cent, while 39 per cent say they do not know which party is running the best campaign.

When asked which party best stands up for Wales’ interests, Plaid Cymru leads on 34 per cent, followed by Reform UK on 16 per cent. However, more than a quarter of respondents say that none of the parties best represents Wales’ interests or that they do not know.

The survey was based on a representative sample of 1,065 adults aged 16 and over in Wales, surveyed between April 17 and April 23 via an online panel.