A new poll from ITV Cymru Wales has predicted that Plaid Cymru will become the leading party of Wales, with Reform UK in second place, in what could be a huge shake-up for politics in Wales.

Rhun ap Iorwerth's party increased its vote share from 30% to 37% since ITV’s last poll in September 2025, with Reform UK dropping from 29% to 23%. Plaid Cymru have said that Labour are “finished” in Wales.

The Green Party is polling in third place at 13%, under new party leader Zack Polanski. It is the first time the Greens have come this high in Wales. Labour find themselves in joint fourth place with the Conservative party, with Liberal Democrats in fifth.

It comes four months before Welsh voters head to the ballot box in May, to elect 96 Senedd Members - an increase from the current 60. The figures are from the poll carried out by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.

There is a new voting system in place for this election, and modelling, which predicts that while Plaid Cymru will win 45 seats, they will be two short of a majority. Reform are predicted to get 23 seats, Greens to get 11, Labour on eight, and Conservatives on six. Leader of the Green Party, Zack Polanksi, has not ruled out a coalition with Plaid Cymru.

The lead candidate for Plaid Cymru in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Sioned Williams MS, said there is “real momentum” behind Plaid.

Speaking to the Brecon and Radnor Express, Ms Williams said: “"This latest explosive poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform.

“In Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, more and more people are realising they face a choice between two very different futures, and are choosing to back Plaid Cymru’s positive vision for Wales. That’s because we are the only party that will always stand up for Wales, with new leadership and serious plans to fix our NHS and help people with the cost-of-living crisis, and with a clear focus on support across rural, valleys and urban areas. We are already campaigning across this new constituency, including the existing Brecon and Radnorshire Senedd area, and, unlike other parties, have announced a strong, constituency-wide list of candidates.

“There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but we are taking nothing for granted. After decades in charge, Labour is finished, but the future of Wales is still to be written. We will fight for every vote, because if people want to stop Reform from dragging Wales backwards and instead choose hope, ambition and a government that puts the people of Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd and Wales first, that change can only come by electing a Plaid Cymru government and by voting Plaid on 7 May.”

James Evans, the current Conservative MS for Brecon and Radnorshire, who is standing again in May, told the Brecon and Radnor Express: “This poll will be deeply concerning to many people across Brecon and Radnorshire. What it suggests is the real prospect of a Plaid Cymru-led government, propped up by the Greens, pushing an independence agenda that would leave Wales poorer and worse off.

“A Plaid - Green coalition would also risk advancing policies that are anti farmer and anti-business, undermining economic growth and doing real damage to rural Wales. Our farming communities and small businesses are the backbone of the Welsh economy, and they deserve support, not policies that make it harder for them to survive and thrive.

“The only way to stop this is to vote for strong, local representatives with a proven track record. I have consistently stood up for Wales, fighting for better health outcomes, better education for our children, support for local businesses, and ensuring our farmers can continue to farm and produce food for our country.

“Wales needs practical leadership focused on improving people’s lives, not ideological experiments that risk our future.”

In a post on X, he also said it was “alarming” that Welsh media are “cosying up to Plaid Cymru ahead of the Senedd election.” He went on to say: “It exposes how deeply entrenched separatist, left wing sympathisers are within our media, pushing a one-sided narrative. People deserve fair, balanced, and impartial coverage not political cheerleading.”

Welsh Labour declined the opportunity to comment.

Leader of the Green Party for Wales, Anthony Slaughter, told The Brecon and Radnor Express: “This poll reflects the enthusiasm we’re picking up on the doorstep, and with our campaign days feeling more like rallies.

“The prospect of overtaking Labour in the Senedd is exciting. This is a change to deliver bold change for Wales: cutting bills, freezing rents, a fresh set of eyes to fix our NHS.

“It’s clear that Greens could hold the balance of power, putting in a position to make the next government braver, and deliver the bold changes we’re talking about.”

Nathan Goldup-John, lead candidate for Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, told The Brecon and Radnor Express: "People are fed up. Fed up with public services that don’t work; buses and trains that are late; not being able to get a GP or dentist appointment; and being priced out of living where they want to call home. All the while, rubbish is being pumped into our rivers and countryside — and on top of it all, people are paying through the nose for it.

“The same old parties continue to let them down. The Greens have a clear vision: lowering bills, cleaning up our rivers, protecting and strengthening our NHS, and restoring nature. People voted for change. They didn’t get it. The Green Party offers real hope and real change. That’s what people will get by electing a Green Senedd Member in May."

A Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: “Polls are only ever a snapshot, and they rarely capture where Liberal Democrat support is concentrated in specific seats. The same poll shows us comfortably retaining our existing Senedd presence in Brecon & Radnorshire, and other recent polling suggests we are competitive for a second seat out of the six.

“In Powys, voters are focused on practical solutions, fixing public services, supporting rural communities and growing the economy. Over the last year alone, the Lib Dems have negotiated to deliver millions of pounds in investment into Powys that wouldn't have happened without the Lib Dems being a strong voice in the Senedd and rolling up our sleeves to get things done.

"Many in Powys are also deeply concerned about the uncertainty created by Plaid Cymru and the Greens’ plans for Welsh independence, as a border county, Powys would be devastated both economically and socially if they were to succeed. The Lib Dems have been clear, we will not support any government that spends a single penny on independence."

A spokesperson for Reform UK Wales said: “In May, the clear choice for voters is between Plaid, who have backed Labour up again and again in the Senedd, or Reform, who represent real change here in Wales.

“Like Plaid, the Lib Dems have also joined and supported Labour Welsh Governments.

“Every party that has propped up Labour must shoulder some responsibility for the war on the countryside we’ve seen coming from Cardiff Bay and Westminster.

“Voters in Brecon and Radnor who want to send a clear message that Labour’s time has run out and that we in Wales back our farmers should vote Reform in May.”

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: "This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14-point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention - a significant shift from when the two parties appeared neck and neck.

"While any single poll should come with a health warning and this may be something of an outlier, it continues broader trends we're seeing in Welsh polling, where Plaid Cymru have enjoyed a modest boost, and trends in England, where Reform support appears to be plateauing while the Greens have surged.

"Two patterns are particularly noteworthy. First, the gains for both the Greens and Plaid Cymru appear to be drawing from voters who were previously undecided, rather than coming from other parties.

"Second, Plaid Cymru seem to be consolidating their position as the party best placed to challenge Reform UK - 57% of respondents in our sample identified them as such."

YouGov’s total sample size for the Senedd Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,220 adults (16+). Fieldwork was undertaken between January 5-12, 2026.

YouGov’s total sample size for the Westminster Voting Intentions MPR Model was 1,205 adults (+18). Fieldwork was undertaken between the same period.